National Bureau of Statistics: the real estate market is still in the bottom stage

On August 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released real estate development investment data for the January-July period of 2022, and all key indicators are still down! Drop! Drop!
Specific data:
The national investment in real estate development was 7,946.2 billion yuan, down 6.4% year on year;
The area of commercial housing sales was 781.78 million square meters, down 23.1% year on year;
The sales volume of commercial housing was 7,576.3 billion yuan, down 28.8% year on year;
The total land purchased was 45.46 million square meters, down 48.1 percent year on year.
Compared with January - June, the real estate indicators are basically stable. The decline in investment in real estate development increased by 1 percentage point; The area of commercial housing sales decreased by 0.8 percentage points; The decline of commercial housing sales narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; The decline in land purchase area narrowed by 0.2 percentage points.
The stabilization and recovery of the real estate market was interrupted in July, when the sales of commercial houses turned cold again, and the real estate market is still in the stage of downward bottoming.
New home sales and investment fell 16% and 14%, respectively, from May, extending year-over-year declines. In addition, housing construction and land purchases remained at historically low levels, with new housing starts falling 0.3 percentage points from a year earlier.
A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said at a press conference that the real estate market is on a downward trend and is currently bottoming out. With the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market and the gradual emergence of the effects of urban policies, the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize and maintain steady and healthy development, and its impact on the economy will gradually improve.

The national real estate sales market recovery process is cold again.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the sales area of commercial housing was 781.78 million square meters, down 23.1% year on year, and the decline was 0.8 percentage points larger than that in January to June. The sales volume of commercial housing was 7,576.3 billion yuan, down 28.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in the January-June period, and the decline narrowed for two consecutive months.

On a monthly basis, residential property sales fell in July after a mid-year surge.

The area of commercial housing sold in July was 92.55 million square meters, down 49.1 percent from the previous month. The value of commercial housing sales was 969.1 billion yuan, down 45% month on month, down 16% and 8% respectively from May. Year-on-year they were down 29 per cent and 28 per cent, 10 percentage points and 7 percentage points, respectively, more than in June.

In terms of scale, July fell further from May, and was only higher than April for the year 2022. It can be seen that after the mid-year impulse in July, the national commercial housing sales performance heat down again, in the short term up momentum is weak.

In July, the average price of commercial housing sales rose above 10,000 yuan for the first time this year.
According to the calculation of the area and amount of commercial housing sales nationwide, the average price of commercial housing sales rose to 10,471 yuan/square meter in July, up by 7% month on month and 1% year on year.
According to the housing price data of 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of commercial housing in first-tier cities rose slightly by 0.3% month-on-month, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, thus supporting the national housing price ring to recover significantly.
The second - and third-tier cities are still in a state of volume and price decline, July prices are declining month-on-month. Specific data, second-tier cities new commercial housing sales prices from the previous month up 0.1% to flat; New residential buildings in third-tier cities fell 0.3 per cent month-on-month, the same rate of decline as in the previous month.
Year-on-year, first-tier cities fell year-on-year price growth, second - and third-tier cities expanded the decline. Prices in first-tier cities rose 3.1 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Prices in second-tier and third-tier cities fell 0.5 percent and 3.2 percent year on year, 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points larger than the previous month, respectively.

From January to July, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8,591.94 million square meters, down 3.7 percent year-on-year; Housing starts reached 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1 percent; The total floor space completed was 320,28 million square meters, down 23.3 percent. Compared with January to June, the cumulative increases of the three were 0.9, 1.7 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively.
On a monthly basis, housing construction, completion and new starts by property developers fell 44 per cent, 36 per cent and 45 per cent respectively in July from a year earlier.
The area of new housing starts continued to decline, the decline continued to expand. The total area of new construction started in July was 96.44 million square meters, down 35 percent from the previous month, and the scale of new construction was less than 100 million square meters, which was only higher than that of April this year and set a new low this year. The year-on-year decline further expanded, with the year-on-year decline and cumulative year-on-year decline respectively 0.3 and 1.7 percentage points larger than the previous month.
The reason is that the current housing enterprises follow the idea of "selling the property". At the same time, under the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, housing enterprises reduce the area of new housing starts to ensure the "guarantee delivery".
According to a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, most of the real estate development projects with a construction period of more than two years and nearing the delivery date remain on a stable schedule. As a result, we can see further improvement in housing construction and floor space completed, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 3.8 and 4.7 percentage points respectively from June.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 45.46 million square meters, down 48.1% year on year, and the decrease was 0.2 percentage points narrower than that in January to June. The transaction price of land was 291.8 billion yuan, down 43% year on year, down 3.3 percentage points from January to June.
On a monthly basis, the area of land purchased in July and the price of land transaction were 9.18 million square meters and 87.5 billion yuan, respectively, down 26 percent and up 34 percent from the previous month.
In July, the second round of concentrated land supply in key cities entered the second half, the volume of land market transactions fell month-on-month, and the market heat index also dropped slightly. The premium rates in Nanjing, Chongqing and Changsha were lower than those in the last round, and the average premium rate in Wuxi was also hovering at a low level.

At present, the overall market construction and construction and soil development investment is still in a historical position, the scale of real estate investment is still difficult to build bottom.
From January to July, the country's investment in real estate development was 7,946.2 billion yuan, down 6.4 percent year on year, one percentage point larger than that in the first six months, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. On a monthly basis, the development investment in July was 1114.8 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 31%; Year-on-year, the decline was 12.3 per cent, 2.9 percentage points wider than in June.
At present, governments at all levels continuously launched rescue policy, but given the central level there is no specific policy field, combined with the local government policy is still difficult to lower the plight of the current corporate development, especially the floor, "" pay and shutdown project work resumption of action is to take investment have positive support, but the percentage increase in low enough to produce strong support to the overall development investment, Therefore, the investment of development enterprises is still in the stage of narrowing the bottom.

In July 2022, the real estate industry showed a downward trend and was in the bottom stage on the whole.
It is worth noting that on the same day that the National Bureau of Statistics released the data, the central bank carried out 400 billion yuan medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation and 2 billion yuan open market reverse repo operation, with the bidding rate both reduced by 10 basis points compared with the previous one. Given that "reverse repo -MLF-LPR" has become the standard path for the central bank to adjust the loan market interest rate, it is expected that a new round of LPR quoted interest rate will be adjusted, which will further improve the confidence of market players and home buyers.
At present, the implementation of rescue policy is still thawing the original wait-and-see housing demand, coupled with some city shutdown, loan suspension phenomenon has been alleviated, considering the lower value in the second half of 2021, it is expected that the follow-up commercial housing sales scale will continue to maintain a historically low level, the decline will continue to narrow.
Part of the city property market transactions have now picked up the signal, the supply side is also actively comply with the market, adjust the structure of land supply and reduce the threshold of land supply, industry confidence recovery, new home sales performance is good, the third quarter of the land market to take the real estate enterprises, there will be more private enterprises.